With an estimated one-fifth of the world’s fossil fuel resources, an abundance of valuable metals and the discovery of shorter sea routes, the Arctic has caught the attention of the world’s most powerful countries.

The Arctic Council

Currently, the eight countries bordering the Arctic are Canada, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Russia and the United States. These eight permanent participants along with thirteen observer states (countries with no maritime borders) form the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council discusses Arctic-related issues faced by the governments and by indigenous people in the Arctic. Unlike the eight permanent states who also have voting rights at Council meetings, observing countries must have their applications approved to be invited to meetings.

On the shiny, white surface, the Arctic appears to be one of the most stable territories. This is due to the Arctic Council’s acknowledgement of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). It states that within 200 nautical miles off its continental shelf, each coastal state has land sovereignty in an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This has successfully resolved some maritime border disputes, an example being Norway and Russia in 2010. However, Denmark's ongoing claim of the Lomonosov Ridge area which intersects Russia's sectors shows not all conflicts are so easily resolved.

The Arctic Conflict

For years, Russia has been the clear leader in the North. With infrastructure projects worth $300bn, its state-owned companies Rosneft and Gazprom Neft are already pumping oil in the Laptev and the Pechora Sea. Besides economic activities, Russia also carries out extensive combat exercises and has been re-equipping old Soviet bases. At present, they maintain twenty-seven operational military bases above the Arctic and own the largest ice-capable fleet in the world. Last week, they launched the ‘Belgorod’, the largest nuclear submarine in thirty years, shortly after a tense standoff with Britain regarding a Royal Navy destroyer in the Black Sea. There are concerns that the ‘Belgorod’ will be deployed in the Arctic and the North Atlantic as it has power to launch nuclear strikes and interfere with seabed internet cables.

Additionally, China (an observer state) has ambitiously announced the plan to include an Arctic component in its Belt and Road Initiative. To do so, they have used their economic might to gain a foothold in the North. When investment fell short for the Russian Yamal LNG facility, it was China who stepped in and contributed $12bn financing to finish the project. This rising Sino-Russian cooperation has particularly troubled the US, who in many aspects has been lagging behind its two rivals. However, this has started to change.

In 2019, the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced at an Arctic Council meeting that “this is America’s moment to stand up as an Arctic nation and for the Arctic’s future”. Biden’s administration, in cooperation with its NATO allies and the Scandinavian countries, have also taken the stance to closely manage Russian engagements and to limit China’s northern reach. The US has ended its non-binding joint development agreement on Alaska LNG with three state-owned Chinese institutions/companies. Denmark, Iceland and Finland, have also rejected Beijing’s proposed infrastructure and development projects, disrupting its plans for the ‘Polar Silk Road’.

As military activities alongside commercial activity increases, so do feelings of mistrust and suspicion, straining relations in the Arctic. However, since Arctic exploration is based on securing each states’ economic needs and the majority of the known resources are within countries’ EEZ, there is at present a united interest to minimise conflict.

by Ke Thie Kiew

The Arctic Dispute