Forecasts have suggested that by 2050, the autonomous vehicle industry will be worth a mind-blowing $7 trillion, or in other words, almost twice the size of Germany’s entire economy. As appealing as self-driving cars may appear, they could pose significant risks. Before Autonomous Vehicles (AV’s) can become ubiquitous, they will no doubt need to be regulated.

The truth is, self-driving vehicles are not as radical as they seem. The technology they are based obuild upon many existing innovations impacting related industries including machine automation through factory production, telecommunications, aircraft control systems, and terrestrial navigation (GPS). AV technology will provide aid to overloaded transportation systems with driverless vehicles, freeing more than 250 hours of commuting time each year. They will help alleviate traffic flow and reduce congestion by automating transportation across ever-advancing telecommunications networks.

One key challenge for AV legislation is the issue of ownership. The current legal assumption is that AV’s will be owned by individuals. However, with the rising demand of transportation sharing-services such as Uber and Lyft, it seems more likely that AV’s will become more concentrated within the transportation-as-a-service industry. The number of 16 to 44-year olds obtaining a driver’s license in the US has been in constant decline since 1983.

Another issue to consider when establishing the legal guidelines of AV regulation is the fact that nearly 1.3 million people die in traffic fatalities each year. 94% of these are the result of human error. Studies have predicted that the switch from ordinary vehicles to self-driving vehicles could potentially save the lives of over half a million people each year. Furthermore, traffic accidents cost $500bn each yeah worldwide. Self-driving car networks could also end up reduce insurance claims.

Although technological progress is continuously rising, legislative progress remains incremental. In the US, the House of Representatives passed autonomous vehicle legislation H.R. 3388 to create a standard for future AV. The difficulty with establishing legislation is the risk of safety. Similarly, to many disruptive technologies. Legislation regarding self-driving cars is particularly fragmented across different legislation and uniformity will be difficult to establish.

Smart federal oversight will be essential, the market is just too large to ignore. It has been forecasted figures of over 27 million driverless cars in Europe alone over the coming decade and correct regulation will be the most important factor when it comes to safely expanding this technology.

Ellie Nikolova

New Regulation of Autonomous Self-Driving Cars