‘Aukus’ is a newly announced security agreement between the USA, UK and Australia which seeks to challenge China’s influence in the disputed South China Sea. The agreement will facilitate Australia in their production of nuclear-powered submarines, making them one of only seven nations in the world to operate such powerful technology. The pact will also involve the beneficial exchange of cyber capabilities, undersea technologies and artificial intelligence between the three allies. UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson has stated that the Aukus agreement is “not intended to be adversarial” towards China but rather to demonstrate that the UK is “determined to defend international law”.

The Aukus deal has sparked tremendous controversy, principally due to the exclusion of France from the pact. It has been reported that French President, Emanuel Macron was only informed about the existence of the deal a matter of hours before it was launched; triggering an outburst of significant anger towards the trio which Paris had considered as their longstanding allies. Exclusion from the Aukus agreement produced particular anger for France due to the pact having the effect of terminating their pre-existing £27bn deal with Australia to build 12 conventional submarines. Furthermore, leaving France out of such a colossal and meaningful deal demonstrates what French foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian has described as a “stab in the back” constituting “unacceptable behaviour between allies”.

Paris responded to the announcement of the Aukus agreement by recalling its ambassadors from both the US and Australia as a sign of protest and disapproval of the deal with the agreement being described by them as “a major breach of trust and contempt”. However interestingly, the French foreign minister said there was no need to recall their ambassador to the UK, describing them as a “third wheel” to the agreement. The reasoning provided by the French regarding the recall of their ambassadors was to “re-evaluate the situation”. More recently, the French defence minister has cancelled defence talks with the UK as a result of the Aukus agreement. The French government have demandingly said they “want explanations” and so US President, Joe Biden expected to meet with Emanuel Macron in upcoming days.

The ‘Aukus trio’ have been united in their defence of the agreement and been quick to reassure France that their historic relationship is as strong as ever. Following allegations of lying to France about the existence of the deal, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said although he understood French disappointment, he had always been honest and clear regarding Australia’s position. Mr Morrison went on to defend the Aukus agreement by commenting that their pre-existing deal with France would have produced inadequate submarines at a very high cost to the Australian taxpayer. The UK have ardently dismissed any noises that the Anglo-French relationship has been tarnished by their involvement in the Aukus agreement, with UK Prime Minister Mr Johnson maintaining the UK’s love for France is “ineradicable”. Mr Johnson continued in his attempt to comfort France remarking that “It’s not something anybody needs to worry about and particularly not our French friends”.

Ultimately, the Aukus agreement has opened up significant cracks in France’s relationship with their age-old allies. However, arguably more significantly, this pact is contributing to the potential creation of a new Cold war in the Asia-Pacific region. China have already criticised the western powers for entering this agreement with a “Cold war mentality”, demonstrating that relations are already beginning to sour. The threat of a 21st century arms race must act as a major wake up call to western powers who have so far failed to unite in their approach towards China, with some being more reluctant to enter formal agreements due to economic reliance on Beijing. If the West’s desire is to employ a serious challenge to China’s dominance in the Indo-Pacific, they need to align in their strategic approach and be willing to form a more wide-ranging and inclusive agreement.

by Oliver Watt

Aukus Agreement: The Fallout