Over recent months, the media has become rather disinterested in discussing matters concerning Brexit, for obvious reasons relating to the outbreak of COVID-19 and the more recent global response to the murder of George Floyd. However, despite such distractions, the Brexit clock continues to tick; with pressure mounting on the UK government to complete talks before the expiration of the implementation period on the 31st of December 2020 to ensure avoidance of crashing out of the EU with no deal.

The COVID-19 crisis resulted in a two-month delay in the talks, which re-commenced with the second round of talks in April over video calls between the two negotiating teams in which they vowed to make “real, tangible progress in the negotiations by June”. Following the most recent round of talks at the beginning of June, EU Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier has acknowledged that it resulted in no significant progress being made, declaring “I don’t think we can go on like this forever”. Thus, it seems the optimism from the recommencement of talks in April was merely wishful thinking.

This lack of progress can be found to have derived from the four key areas of fisheries, competition rules, governance and police cooperation, which have been clear sticking points between the two negotiating teams. Barnier has blamed this lack of progress on the UK’s attempt to backtrack on its commitments which were set out in the political declaration agreed between the UK and EU last year. In response to the UK’s negotiating strategy, Barnier has asserted that the EU “cannot and will not accept this backtracking on the political declaration”. However, a senior UK negotiating official has described the political declaration as merely setting out the ‘parameters’ of the discussions and that it did not equate to a treaty.

This stalling and stagnation in the advancement of negotiations has made the threat of a no deal exit from the EU a much more credible prospect for the UK. With both the EU and UK diplomats wanting to avoid such a crash-out exit, Barnier has welcomed the UK to seek an extension to the implementation period beyond the 31st of December, however, such an extension must be triggered before the end of June. Additionally, Prime Minister, Boris Johnson has already refused to seek this extension, insisting the UK will complete its full departure from the EU before 2021. This intention to complete the EU withdrawal by the end of the year was made clear by Michael Gove’s tweet following a meeting with the EU Commission in which he said the “moment for extension has now passed”.

To ensure the UK and EU have a healthy and functioning relationship beyond the end of 2020, there will have to be concessions and compromises on the part of both Michel Barnier and UK chief negotiator, David Frost. The EU have already expressed a degree of their willingness to compromise within certain areas such as state aid and fishing quotas in order to secure a deal. Conversely, the UK are yet to hint in relation to any form of concessions on their part; however, it is clear such concessions will be required in order to achieve a deal.

by Oliver Watt

Brexit Talk Escalations