Is Brexit Finally Over?
Has this saga finally entered its denouement?
After exiting the EU on the 31 st of January following the passing of the Withdrawal Bill, does this now mean the Brexit ‘saga’ is finally over? Well, not necessarily….
The UK has now entered a so-called ‘transition’ or ‘implementation’ period in which it will continue to abide by all EU regulations and commitments including its monetary contributions to the EU budget, maintaining our position within the customs union and single market. The only key difference for the UK during this transition period is the absence from the political institutions of the EU with all of the British MEP’s becoming jobless. The transition period is set to end on the 31 st of December 2020 and although this may seem like a very short time period to carry out such extensive formal negotiations, Boris Johnson has ruled out any form of extension to this deadline despite that presence of an extension option within the Withdrawal bill.
What is the purpose of this eleven-month long transition period? Throughout this period, UK negotiators will be tasked with formulating a new trade deal with the EU in order to carve out the country’s future external relationship. Talks between the UK and the EU are scheduled to commence on the 3 rd of March, giving both parties a few months to undertake preparation for what looks like it is going to be series of intense discussions, with various key issues looking like they could cause sticking points within the negotiation process. Both the UK and EU aim to achieve a zero-quota, zero-tariff free trade agreement, however Brussels has stated that this will not be possible unless the UK can guarantee that they will not undertake activities adhering to lower social and environmental standards than that of the EU which would allow them to undercut EU prices and steal a competitive advantage – Boris Johnson would likely not accept this proposal considering his constant determination not be confined by an EU rulebook. Other likely ‘problem areas’ arising throughout the negotiation process include EU access to UK fishing waters, medicine licensing and data protection laws.
If all goes to plan, Boris Johnson should have the UK completely separated from the EU come the 31 st of December 2020 on the basis of a free-trade deal, however if negotiations don’t quite proceed at the speed estimated by the UK government and Boris remains adamant to avoid extending the transition deadline, the UK will be set for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit on WTO terms, resulting in the introduction of tariffs and quotas between the UK and EU.
By Oliver Watt