Sanna Marin’s Electoral Defeat and What This Means For Finland

Pictured: Sanna Marin (Credit: NPR)

Previously the world’s youngest female government leader and Finland’s youngest-ever prime minister, Sanna Marin was the most popular politician in Finland this century. Under her premiership, Finland focused on climate change issues and, like other world leaders, also faced the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Marin was also commended for her handling of the pandemic and her role in leading Finland towards imminent entry into NATO, contributing more to her personal popularity. 

Credit for these management decisions translated into electoral results with her centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) increasing its vote share to 19.9% and its number of MPs. However, this was a bitter victory as, despite this feat, Sanna Marin and the SDP were ultimately defeated by Petteri Orpo, leader of the conservative right-wing National Coalition Party (NCP) following a tense three-way election. 

Why did Sanna Marin lose the election?

It may be surprising to note that Marin’s electoral loss was not particularly influenced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nor the lingering effects of the pandemic despite these issues plaguing European leaders of other major nations. Instead, the main reason for Marin’s downfall was due to her economic policies. 

Whilst Marin retained support from many Finns, especially young moderates, she isolated some conservatives with lavish spending on pensions and education they saw as not frugal enough. Under her governance, Finland also saw more red tape in the business sector, meaning that there was a less competitive market and a higher chance of price increases. Indeed, these points were emphasised by the opposing side under Orpo, who accused Marin of economic mismanagement that led to a sharp rise in Finland’s public debt. During his campaign, he advocated for austerity and tax cuts, appealing to more of the Finnish population than Marin. 

What Orpo’s victory means for Finland 

Orpo secured 20.8% of the vote and 48 seats in parliament, the third-highest result in the party's history. It is expected for Orpo to form a coalition to obtain a majority in parliament. While it is possible he may choose to do this with the SDP, it is more likely that he will first seek to form a government with the right-wing populist Finns Party, which came in second and won a record 20.1% under the leadership of Riikka Purra. 

This means a shift to the right with the likelihood of more austerity – higher taxes and lower public spending, aligning with Orpo’s campaign promises. A multi-party coalition will also mean that some compromises will have to be made. For Orpo, this may mean cutting immigration, the number one priority for the Finns Party.

By Connie Kiew