On the 1st of September, 2020, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced a new legislative agenda for Scotland’s future. The most prominent point emerged in the First Minister’s declaration of her intention to table another independence referendum before the end of this parliamentary term. A few weeks shy of the sixth anniversary of its last attempt which ended with a decisive 55 per cent ‘No’ vote, the Scottish independence movement is hoping for a turn in its favour. Boris Johnson and constitutional lawyers alike will watch with bated breath as Sturgeon attempts to strengthen her position ahead of the next Scottish elections in May 2021 - what, if anything, can we expect to be different this time around?

It appears as if there are signs which may be inspiring of hope in proponents of Scotland’s independence. Last month, YouGov recorded its largest-ever lead for the pro-independence side, with ‘Yes’ leading by 53 per cent to 47. Statistics are also supportive of Sturgeon personally as a leader. Despite polling fieldwork occurring while the controversial awarding of Scottish Highers results was revealing itself, 72 per cent of Scottish people believe that she is doing well as First Minister, including 59 per cent of those who had voted ‘No’ in the previous referendum.

Sturgeon proved herself to many with her swift handling of the results situation, allowing students to retain their teacher-given Centre Assessed Grades. Where the Scottish Qualifications Authority hit pupils from the poorest 20 per cent of areas worst, Sturgeon appeared to bring justice to many.

A factor which will be substantive in determining the referendum’s success - and the manifestation of the SNP’s predicted landslide next election - is coronavirus. It is here that opinion varies most vociferously; in August, the First Minister made the collection of track and trace mandatory and instructed pubs and restaurants to refuse service to those who would not comply. Just one month earlier, Ed Humpherson of the Office for Statistics Regulation reprimanded Sturgeon for overstating her success in mitigating infections. Now, her government is commencing a ‘national mission’ to create new green jobs for the post-Covid economy.

Perhaps most pleasingly to the independence movement, prospective voters are certainly less approving of the UK government’s management at large. Serving as a stark contrast to his governing counterparts in Scotland, findings from YouGov reveal just 20 per cent of Scots believe Boris Johnson to be leading well, with 74 per cent thinking he is doing poorly. While the UK leads in excess deaths in Europe, the likelihood of Scotland hoping to separate grows.

It seems as if the impact of indifference will be minute during the next referendum – young people especially seem to tolerate political apathy less and less. A catalyst for this intolerance was irrefutably the 2016 Brexit Referendum in which Scotland voted 62 per cent in favour of ‘Remain’. For many, the opportunity of a second independence referendum may seem to be a chance to ‘right the wrong’ of four years ago.

The outcome of this referendum will be significant, with the potential to either reinforce the Union for years to come or facilitate its collapse. If we see another ‘No’ vote, we can anticipate unionists and the London government to prosper. If the result is ‘Yes’, it will be fascinating to observe Scotland’s future in Europe, its dealings with the rest of the UK and the perhaps emergent anti-Union movements elsewhere.

by Dite Bagdonaite

Sturgeon's Push For A Second Scottish Independence Referendum