On the 5th May 2022, voters across England went to the polls in order to partake in local elections. In England, 146 councils and 4,360 seats were contested, including all 32 London Boroughs. In principle, these elections enable voters to determine the composition of their local authorities, thereby influencing the manner in which public services are delivered. More generally, they are often seen as a de facto referendum on the performance of the incumbent government, particularly as they fall at the midpoint between general elections. The results may provide an insight into the level of support for the government, warranting close attention from backbenchers, ministers and other policy makers. This article explores the results and the implications for the major parties.

Labour emerged as the largest party, securing 65 councils and 2,265 councillors. The Conservatives won 35 councils and 1,078 representatives whilst the Liberal Democrats obtained 16 authorities and 712 councillors. Despite not acquiring control of any local authorities, the Green Party secured 116 councillors; 144 seats were allocated to independents.

An initial examination of the results may suggest that the Labour Party performed extremely well relative to the governing Conservatives. To an extent, this is true – the Party retained several authorities whilst also making inroads at the Conservative’s expense (to the tune of three councils and 22 councillors). Keir Starmer’s party entrenched its already strong position in London, where it acquired the traditional Conservative strongholds of Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster. The loss of Wandsworth is likely to constitute a particularly bitter blow for Johnson, as it has often been depicted as a ‘flagship’ Conservative council (not least due to its enthusiastic support for Thatcher’s Right to Buy scheme). Nonetheless, the capital did not herald entirely positive results for Her Majesty’s Opposition. Labour still experiences some difficulties in appealing to outer London voters, as highlighted by the losses of both Harrow and Croydon. Across the South, the party generally recorded positive results. It ousted the Conservatives in Southampton, prompting pollsters to warn that Labour may now threaten to usurp the Tories in its south coast fortresses. However, at present, most attention appears to be directed to the so called ‘Red Wall’ -a series of marginal seats across the North and Midlands (also encompassing North Wales) which have traditionally voted Labour but may now be more reluctant to do so. In 2019, the Conservatives made considerable inroads in these areas, gaining a significant majority as a result. If Labour is to win the next election, it needs to regain these areas. Whilst a plethora of red wall authorities were not contested two weeks ago, some key battlegrounds were. The Conservatives tended to fare better here than in other parts of the country. For instance, it gained seats in Bolton, Hyndburn and Oldham whilst retaining Hartlepool. At the same time, Keir Starmer’s party retained Sunderland Council whilst also registering a resounding victory in Cumberland. However, the results generally indicate that Starmer has failed to make considerable inroads across these areas, with some questioning whether sufficient progress has been made. In view of this, Labour may face an arduous task in assembling the support that it needs to win the next general election.

That is not to say that the Conservatives did not endure a challenging night. The party will be disappointed to lose out to Labour in some of its southern heartlands. However, if anything, the key benefactor here was the Liberal Democrats who won a plethora of seats from the Conservatives (gaining 194 councillors). This reflects recent trends in which Ed Davey’s party has unseated the Conservatives in by elections. There are fears that the so called ‘blue wall’ could prove to be increasingly susceptible to Lib Dem challenges, not least in the Southwest where it has long enjoyed appreciable support. Johnson will seek to shore up support here. Nonetheless, the results have not necessarily been as dire as many expected; some suspected that public dissatisfaction with the ‘partygate’ scandal may have culminated in greater losses. The results are by no means positive for the governing party, but they are far from cataclysmic, particularly when considering that incumbent administrations tend to lose seats during mid-term local elections. They are unlikely to render the Prime Minister’s position untenable.

by Dara Foody

Unpacking the English Local Elections