What does impeachment mean for Trump?
Donald Trump became the third US President to be impeached on December 18th following the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives approving the articles of impeachment. Trump’s impeachment resulted from charges against him of abuse of power and obstruction of congress. These charges are based on accusations that the US President withheld $400m of military aid money being released to Ukraine and threatened the opportunity of the White House visit for Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky in order to pressurise Ukraine into digging up damaging information on his primary democrat opponent, Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. President Trump, maintains complete denial of such activities, having branded the Democrats inquiry as a ‘witch hunt’.
However, before the President can be expelled from office a trial must be conducted in the Senate in January where a two-thirds vote is required to remove Trump and with the Senate currently being Republican-controlled, it is thought to be highly unlikely that a conviction will be found. If the unexpected occurred and Trump was convicted by the Senate, he would be succeeded by his Vice-President, Mike Pence, a practice established under the Presidential Succession Act 1947.
Regardless of the outcome of the trial in the Senate, will the impeachment inquiry tarnish Trump’s public image and threaten his chances for the 2020 election? Recent polls have shown that Americans remain sharply divided on the issue on whether Trump should be removed from office. A ‘USA Today’ poll conducted between the 10th and 14th of December showed that while 45% of people support Trump’s impeachment and removal from office, 50% have demonstrated their opposition to the impeachment decision. An even more recent ‘Gallup’ poll released on the day of the impeachment decision showed that the President’s approval ratings have resoundingly increase by 6 points throughout the impeachment process. Although polls cannot be fully relied on when analysing political opinions, all of the evidence would suggest that despite the impeachment decision and the alleged Ukrainian scandal, Trump’s popularity has certainly not been diminished and he remains on track to be re-elected in 2020, depending on the outcome of the Senate trial in January.
By Oliver Watt