Is Elon Musk Right To Dismiss Lidar?

What are Elon’s plans in his dismissal?

Lidar stands for light detection and ranging and is often dubbed as the eyes of autonomous vehicles. It is usually mounted on the roof of a car and is able to produce very detailed 3D visualisations as it uses rotating lasers, like the one in the picture above, to map out its surroundings. Many companies looking to develop autonomous cars make use of lidar for its detail and reliability. 

However, Elon Musk has often described this technology as “expensive” and as a “fool’s errand”. He believes that with the data collected by all Tesla Vehicles that are on the road, AI cameras could act as a valid substitute for Lidar, whilst having the same functionality and doing so at a much lower cost. These cameras also don’t require a dome to be placed on the roof of the car. Nevertheless, the argument that it would affect aesthetics may not be strong, because with enough research it is possible to develop much smaller versions. This trend has already been witnessed from the bulky original Lidar that was built by Velodyne to the modern ones that can be seen now. 

It would be unreasonable to claim AI cameras should be used over Lidar due to high costs, since technologies hardly remains expensive for a long period of time. Over 100 firms can be seen developing Lidar including well known car manufacturers like GM and Ford and even online retailer Alibaba. Spardha Taneja from Ptolemus consulting group says that, although Lidars currently cost from $4,000-$25,000, they are expected to drop in price by some 40% in 2022. A new start-up hoping to reduce the cost of producing Lidars is Blickfeld. It makes use of, off the shelf lasers and an unusually large mirror to increase the laser’s range. It claims that its new assembly line will produce this at just $275. The global Lidar market is forecasted to rise up to $731 million by 2025.

Lastly, it is not deniable that AI cameras struggle a lot in foggy and dark conditions. It is for this reason companies such as Waymo - who have over a decade of driverless car research under their portfolio, Uber and several other manufacturers looking to develop autonomous cars still prefer to use Lidar in combination with AI cameras than use AI cameras alone. Unless Tesla or another company finds a way to develop AI cameras to have equal functionality, even in challenging weather conditions; It is best to not dismiss Lidar,  due to the added safety that is achieved by using it in conjunction with AI cameras. 

By Jaidaksh Anilkumar